Lagos predicts “Above-Normal” rainfall and potential flooding for 2026

Lagos predicts “Above-Normal” rainfall and potential flooding for 2026

By Mutiat Fashina

The Lagos State Government has issued a high-alert weather forecast for 2026, predicting a rainy season characterized by “above normal” precipitation levels across the state.

Speaking at a media briefing on Friday, the Commissioner for the Environment and Water Resources, Mr. Tokunbo Wahab, revealed that annual rainfall is expected to reach between 1650mm and 3030mm. The season is slated for an early kickoff in the last week of March, extending until the first week of December.

The 2026 surge is attributed to a “weak La-Niña” and a neutral phase of the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). According to Commissioner Wahab, these climatic patterns translate to lower temperatures, earlier start dates, and a delayed end to the rains, resulting in a significantly longer wet season than usual.

The state warned of “flash flooding” triggered by heavy rains and rising Lagoon levels, which can temporarily “lock up” drainage discharge points. To combat this, the government has:
Strengthened the Flood Early Warning Systems (FEWS).

Put the Signage and Advertisement Agency (LASAA) on alert to monitor billboard safety against high winds.
Coordinated with the Ogun-Oshun River Basin Authority to manage water release from the Oyan Dam.

Officials are urging citizens in low-lying areas; specifically Agiliti, Agboyi, Itowolo, and Ajegunle to be prepared to move upland if necessary.

“We sincerely appeal that residents refrain from deliberate acts that can lead to flash flooding,” Wahab stated, citing the dumping of refuse in drains and illegal construction on drainage setbacks as major risks. Drainage engineers have been deployed across all 57 LGAs and LCDAs to manage blockages throughout the season.